The Wimbledon 2015 final will be contested between top seed Novak Djokovic and second seed Roger Federer. Both men have a lot to win, their eighth and third Wimbledon titles respectively, and a lot to lose, too. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
What’s at stake? Roger Federer, at 33 years old, and under a month shy of turning 34, will not have many more chances to add to his tally of 17 slams. This is his tenth Wimbledon final, a record for most finals reached at any slam, and he already has seven titles. Those kind of numbers already have many arguing he is the Greatest ever, an eighth title at Wimbledon would make that argument an open and shut case.
Djokovic has an 8-8 record in Slam finals, and he has only one multi slam year on his resume, 2011. Since then, he has managed one slam a year and lost two finals in 2012, two in 2013, and one in 2014. That kind of record has something about the Hingis years about it. Djokovic, like Hingis was from 1998-2001, is dominant enough week in week out to be No.1, but is prone to being defeated in the majority of big matches at Slams by opponents with bigger games, and sometimes, stronger minds.
A third Wimbledon title would earn Djokovic another multiple slam year on his resume and put him in the black on his Slam titles-runner up finishes ratio.
With so much at stake in a Slam final, both men will be nervous, and whoever handles their nerves better will win. Who will do that is hard to say as both men have had issues in finals the last few years. Djokovic has lost a few Slam finals, including last month’s Roland Garros, in which he was the heavy favourite, and Federer has lost a slam final and five of seven ATP 1000 finals he has played in since 2014. and he has lost four of those matches to Djokovic, five if you count his default from the 2014 WTF final.
With both men being questionable mentally in big finals, the match will be a fascinating one, and with their head to head so close, Federer leads 20-19, this match really could go either way.
Form coming in: Federer played one of his greatest slam matches since 2012 when he defeated Murray 7-5, 6-4, 6-4, a scoreline that actually flatters the no.3 seed.
The Swiss shut the Scot out of every single one of his service games, and in the final game of each set, with the Scot serving to stay in, Federer wrecked havoc on the Murray second serve, broke him, and then started the next set with his strongest weapon, the serve, dictating matters. The win was a masterclass of aggressive, perfectly paced tennis, and showed Federer has a Grand Slam winning performance still left in him.
Djokovic did not have such a task as facing a former champion on his hands in his semi and beat Richard Gasquet for the 13th time in his career (head to head now 13-1). The Serbian, whose opponent in the last eight, Marin Cilic, has been his highest seeded one, will face a completely different level of class when he meets Federer. Luckily for Djokovic he has had to fight in the tournament, coming back two sets to love down against Kevin Anderson in the fourth round so he is, at the very least, match tough.
Who is the favourite to win? Djokovic is the bookmaker’s favourite, but Federer, as the more natural grass courter, is highly fancied and should win.
Head to head: The serve. Federer has impressive stats here over the course of the tournament: 67% of first serves in, 85% of points behind that delivery, 66% of second serve points won, and 67 aces.
Djokovic, though, is not so far behind, his numbers reading 71, 77, 65 and 64. The Serb also has one of the best second serves on the tour and places it more effectively than anyone bar Federer.
However, the stat that really separates them is on break points saved and lost- Federer has had only 5 break points against him, and failed to save only one of them. Meanwhile, Djokovic has faced 25 break points and lost five of them.
Advantage: Federer. If he can repeat or get close to his serving display versus Murray, he will cruise through his service games and save his energy for trying to break Djokovic.
The return of serve: Djokovic has earned himself the reputation of best returner in the game, but this Wimbledon Federer’s return stats are as good, if not better.
Of course, this stat is not so reliable in that it very much depends on whose serve you are facing, but Federer’s stats, he has converted 28/61 break points (46%), slightly better than Djokovic’s 25/60 (42%), suggest he is very much on his return game, a fact that was perfectly demonstrated against Murray against whom he had the perfect return strategy.
Federer was of course helped by the fact Murray’s second serve is a weakness, but the Scot actually served well for most of the match. What Federer made look so easy was attacking the weak serves and he will also be just as ready for any chances Djokovic gives him as well.
Djokovic will be ready for Federer, too. The Swiss is unlikely to emulate his formidable serving display from the semis and there is going to be a time when Djokovic works himself into a Federer service game and earns a break point.
Federer will take risks to stave off those break points, and they may or may not pay off. All we know, from looking at his serving performance, and his ground game and net game, too, that there is a very strong chance fortune will favour the brave, and Federer will dig himself out of any holes.
Advantage: Federer is returning well here, but the way Djokovic broke an in-form Anderson’s serve in the last sixteen and picked apart the Cilic serve in the quarters gives him the edge.
The Ground Game: Djokovic, who stays at or around the baseline more than Federer, grabs this one on default. The world No.1 does have, though, the best back court game in the business, and this tournament he has won 55 percent of baseline rallies. He has also struck 68 forehand winners, and 49 backhand winners.
Federer, who is to be found in the middle of the court and at the net more often than at the baseline, has been more impressive on the forehand- striking 73 winners- and a little less so on his more vulnerable backhand with 29 winners. Though when he has needed it, that shot has been sublime.
Advantage: Djokovic. His depth of shot, and his variety of length, will keep Federer back at times, and he will win most of the longer rallies, though Federer’s aggressive game will rob him of some rhythm resulting in more errors than usual.
The Net Game: Much like Djokovic with the ground game, Federer wins this by default, too. The Swiss’ commitment to the net over the last season and a half is what has brought him up from No.8 to No.2 in the world and the principal reason he now has another shot at an 18th slam title. Federer has been to the net 199 times, and won 145 points up there (73%).
Djokovic, to his credit, has also been successful at the net. Under Becker, he has started to come to the net more, but typically only when the opportunity to do so has presented itself, rather than, as is the case with Federer, working each point to finish it up there. Djokovic has won 116 of 166 net approaches (70%).
Advantage: Federer.
Fitness/stamina: Djokovic is the fittest player on tour and can outlast anyone. That factor played a major role in his defeat of Federer in last year’s final.
Fortunately for Federer this year, he will go into the final fresh. The Swiss has spent just 9 hours 58 minutes on court. Meanwhile Djokovic has been on court for 13 hours 04 minutes. That will not bother the world no.1, as fit as he is, but Federer’s lesser time on court could prove to be decisive in this final.
Advantage: If the match goes the distance, Djokovic will have a huge edge.
The match up: While all these numbers are well and good, what really matters is how this match up pans out. Federer leads it by a whisker- 20-19- and they are 4-3 (in Djokovic’s favour) in their past seven matches since 2014. Djokovic has the edge in finals since 2014 though , leading 4-1, and has won the bigger tussles in Indian Wells (2014, 2015), Rome (2015), and at Wimbledon last year, which gives the Serb a slight mental edge.
That edge is negated somewhat though by the fact that Federer has won two of their recent matches on the tour’s faster surfaces (Shanghai 2014, Dubai 2015). The grass of Wimbledon might be slower if the match is played under the roof, but the ball will bounce even lower, ensuring Federer’s slices, drives and volleys die before Diokovic can reach them and keep the point alive.
In this final, Federer will likely have the advantage early on, cruising through his service games, and he will, courtesy of his better serve and more aggressive game on grass, have the advantage in the lotteries that are tiebreakers. He may not even need them, if he plays his return games as shrewdly as he has been.
Whatever happens, Federer will, just as he did against Murray, have to get the job done quickly. Federer is almost 34, and the longer the match goes on, the more likely his biggest weapons are to tire, and Djokovic will be there, waiting for his chance, ready to get one more ball back, put the pressure on, and tear the title from the Swiss’ grasp.
Prediction: Federer to win in four sets. The Swiss will take the first two, struggle and then drop the third, before raising his game for one final burst and wrapping up the win in four.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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Come back tomorrow and read our thoughts on the final. Until then, Enjoy the tennis 🙂
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